Goodbye 6 Percenters; Hello Savings
Most real estate agents will soon quit – and good riddance
Ric Edelman: It's Wednesday, December 6th. Ding dong, the witch is dead. Finally, after all these decades, the National Association of Realtors has been thumped by a federal court and found guilty of conspiring to keep real estate commissions artificially high. Plaintiffs were awarded $1.8 billion in damages, and the head of the National Association of Realtors resigned within days, supposedly for other reasons. There are more lawsuits against the National Association of Realtors and real estate brokers, and federal regulators are investigating, too. My only question what took so long?
Real estate brokers are an $100 billion a year in commissions, and for all the work they do, that's ridiculously high. In fact, the commissions are so high you don't even know how high they are. You tell me, what's the typical real estate commission when you sell your home? Wrong. It's not 6%. It's higher than that. Much higher. You don't believe me? Listen to this. Say you bought your home ten years ago for $500,000. How much did you pay in real estate commissions? None. Right. After all, the commission is paid by the seller. And that commission is split between the seller's agent and the buyer's agent. You as the buyer, paid nothing.
Now, fast forward ten years. You're ready to sell your house and say that you sell it for $1 million, twice what you paid. How much commission did you pay? If you said $60,000, you're right. But you said $60,000 because you think $1 million sale price times a 6% commission is $60,000. But think about that. You didn't pay $1 million to buy the house. You only paid $500,000 to buy it, and you're paying $60,000 in commissions, $60,000 commission on a $500,000 purchase. That's a 12% charge, not six. The real estate cartel, headed by the National Association of Realtors, is the only business in the country that has succeeded in manipulating you into paying commissions, not on the price you pay, but the price you sell for.
Think about your car. Was your car salesman's commission based on the future price of the car when you later sell it? No, they charged you based on the current sales price. Okay. Bad example. Right? Because cars go down in value. All right. How about your investments? If you buy a stock and pay a commission, the commission is based on the amount you invest and you pay it up front. The commission is not based on the future higher value of the commission. Can you imagine investors tolerating that from their financial advisor?
But real estate agents get away with it all the time. They force home sellers into this system. If you don't play, no real estate agent will work with you. And if you don't agree to 6% of the sales price, no real estate agent will work with you. What a rip off! In fact, the industry tried to even make it worse than that. I remember many, many years ago on radio, the local big real estate company, Logan and Foster, tried to raise the commission to 7%. I challenged the CEO of the company to come on to my radio show so we could debate it, and he was a no show. Gee, I wonder why.
The National Association of Realtors has 1.5 million members. Most of them only sell a few houses a year. If even that part-time agents who think they can make an easy buck get their license, and the only houses they sell are the houses that their friends and neighbors let them list for them. You would never tolerate doing business with someone inexperienced or as unhelpful in any other line of work. And you sure wouldn't pay the full 6% commission unless you were getting stellar service.
So this court case is great news for home buyers, and home sellers start right now demanding lower commissions, and if they refuse to negotiate, threaten to sue them. They'll capitulate pretty quickly, especially in this market which is suffering from lack of inventory, all time high prices, and the highest interest rates in 20 years.
Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette, and Woods say the commissions are going to fall to 4%. You'll save a third the next time you sell your house. And by the way, Keefe, Bruyette and Woods also say that 80% of today's real estate agents are going to quit. Good riddance. The agents who remain will be the real professionals of the industry. They might earn less per transaction, but they'll end up with higher incomes because they'll do more transactions thanks to less competition. And you, as the consumer, will win because you'll save tens of thousands of dollars and you'll get a better agent and top notch service.
Everybody wins except the National Association of Realtors. This is also going to generate a new growth opportunity for new companies in the real estate brokerage space. Homes.com. Zillow. Realtor.com. iBuyer.com. Opendoor. Offerpad. All these startups will give old school realtors a run for their money. You should consider all these companies before you choose your real estate agent and the National Association of Realtors. My bet it could well go out of business. Good riddance. Oh, so guess what? They're appealing the court ruling. My message to them: Good luck with that.
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